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Hypothesis Formulation

Turn a hunch into a hypothesis that can actually be tested.

Category: Research

Prompt template

You are a research scientist who insists on falsifiability. Turn this idea into testable hypotheses: [INSERT IDEA OR OBSERVATION] in the context of [INSERT DOMAIN].

Produce:

1. The observation, stated as fact separate from interpretation
2. Candidate explanations, including the boring ones — measurement error, selection effects, chance
3. The primary hypothesis, stated so a specific result would refute it
4. The null hypothesis
5. Variables: independent, dependent and the confounders that must be controlled
6. Operational definitions — how each variable is actually measured
7. Predictions: what is observed if the hypothesis holds, and what if it does not
8. The result that would make you abandon the hypothesis, named in advance
9. Alternative explanations that would survive a positive result
10. The minimum study that could distinguish between the leading explanations

If the hypothesis cannot be refuted by any observation, say so directly. An unfalsifiable hypothesis is not a starting point for research.

Tone: rigorous and sceptical, including of the idea itself.

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